Balochistan Oracle: The Bombing of Bugti

The assassination of Akbar Khan Bugti resulted from a gang rape. In early 2005,a popular doctor in mountainous tribal area of Balochistan was raped by soldiers of Pakistan’s security forces. The forces were in town defending the nation's natural gas supply, and when local tribesmen sought to avenge the rape, the conflict escalated. Akbar Khan Bugti is a recent and portentous casualty. Although virtually ignored in the United States, many in Pakistan are predicting fallout from his death that could have repercussions for American interests in the region, especially the war on terror. You don't need to know a great deal about Pakistani culture or geography to get the gist: Musharraf is in trouble.

Bugti was an extremely popular figure in Pakistan: handsome, educated, rugged, and outspoken. For most of his career, he was a voice for peaceful integration of Balochistan into Pakistan, and his turn to open revolt came when he was eighty years old. The official account claims that elite Pakistani forces led an assault on his cave. It is more likely that, with U.S. help, the Pakistanis located Bugti through his satellite phone and dropped a bunker-buster on him.

In bombing Bugti, Musharraf miscalculated. Many in Pakistan are predicting that the assassination will be the beginning of the end. All Things Pakistan, for example, says it "may well be the turning point of the Musharraf rule." Outsiders such as India Defense wonder aloud whether Musharraf has "chewed off more than he can swallow." One problem is that there is now no clear leader in Balochistan, and thus no clear way to end the conflict there.

Musharraf's immediate reaction has been to shift his energies from northern Waziristan (where the Taliban hang out) to southern Balochistan (relatively insulated from the Afghan conflict). Unfortunately, most Americans can't tell the difference, and take the Pakistani generalissimo at his word, even giving a little help to the Pakistani leader. The truth, as this guy notes, is that Musharraf's internal conflicts are diverting resources from the areas where they might help fight Taliban and Al Qaeda types.

If Musharraf falls, it is not clear whether his successor would be any more helpful to American interests. But more fundamentally, Musharraf is living proof of the emptiness of the Bush doctrine. Whatever the President may claim for domestic consumption, to the Islamic world, and probably to most of the rest of the world, the President's policies do not support democracy. Musharraf is one of a long line of U.S. sponsored strongmen, another sonofabitch who is at least our sonofabitch.

Well, let Bugti be a harbinger: we're losing our sonofabitch.