Monday, September 18, 2006

Yes, Bush is going to attack Iran.

There’s another piece of evidence the Bush Administration is preparing to attack Iran that Kaplan and Time ignore. “Islamofascists

You know it has to be frustrating for the Bush Administration. It is there contention, therefore their belief, that Iran is contributing mightily to their troubles in Iraq. Not at all unlike the USSR of old gave past Administrations headaches in Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, etc… But Iran isn’t a superpower nor does it have the nuclear deterrent. So why is the Bush Administration letting Iran get away with it? Technically, Iran is responsible for the deaths of how many US Servicemen in Iraq? More than one? And our troubles in Iraq thanks to Iran are just one aspect of the Iranian migraine.

So when Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld unveil their new branding effort, and start referring to islamofascists, you have to wonder what they’re trying to get at. My impression is they’re trying to get at Iran. They’re trying mightily to paint Iran as the modern day equivalent of Nazi Germany. But not just so they can make veiled references to the defeatists, enablers and appeasers of old when referring to their opponents. In fact, that particular slant is simply a perk of the primary reason for equating Iran with Nazi Germany.

The long and short of it is this. Bush knows our conventional military capabilities are not up to the task of defeating Iran in any meaningful, long-term way. At best, we could cripple their infrastructure and kill a whole lot of innocent civilians, but we’re no where close to being able to coax out of them an unconditional surrender. Fact of the matter is, even if we were, these guys are the type that would sooner sink the ship than give up the helm. But if they’re the modern day fascists, well, that changes the equation significantly. It translates: Nazis with nuclear weapons. Say it again, just to get a feel for it. Nazis with nuclear weapons.

Now ask yourself, what would you do to stop the Nazis from getting their hands on nuclear weapons? I suspect most people would answer, whatever it took. For Bush, and Cheney and Rumsfeld, Iranian’s with nuclear weapons are the equivalent of Nazis with nuclear weapons. What they hope to do with islamofascists is to convince the rest of us. So what’s the strategy of winning a nuclear war when you’re the only one with nuclear weapons? Well, you start a conventional war. You fight that one until it gets so bad, so ugly, so costly, that it makes it easy to convince your people that islamofascists are who you’re fighting. Once enough people agree with you, you do what you’d do to stop Hitler from acquiring nuclear weapons. You use nuclear weapons against Iran. A conventional war with Iran is not out of the question because it’s folly. Not when it’s a means to an end.

I think the greatest danger this country faces today is not Iran, or religious fanatics, or terrorists in general. It’s that although the above seems unlikely at best, it’s not. It’s not if you believe Bush’s, Cheney’s and Rumsfeld’s rhetoric. The greatest danger this country faces today is that we believe the Bush Administration is lying about what they really think. If we believed them, then we’d recognize that they’re a hairs trigger away from doing whatever it takes to stop the Nazis from getting the bomb.

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